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Estimating the natural rate of unemployment and testing the natural rate hypothesis

โœ Scribed by Michael K. Salemi


Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1999
Tongue
English
Weight
238 KB
Volume
14
Category
Article
ISSN
0883-7252

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โœฆ Synopsis


How should one measure the natural rate of unemployment? This paper proposes a systems procedure as an alternative to NAIRU. The natural rate is treated as an unobserved state variable in a system that includes measurement equations for the unemployment rate, the rate of wage growth and the rate of inยฏation. The model is derived from a version of the wage bargaining model of Blanchard and embodies a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The model is estimated by embedding the Kalman ยฎlter within the full-information maximum likelihood procedure. For US data, the estimated model implies substantial post-war variation in the natural rate and a negative, but weak, eect of inยฏation surprises on unemployment.


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