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Error inflation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis

✍ Scribed by Jens-Uwe Klügel

Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2007
Tongue
English
Weight
175 KB
Volume
90
Category
Article
ISSN
0013-7952

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✦ Synopsis

Based on a consistent interpretation of earthquake occurrence as a stochastic process I demonstrate that the mathematical model of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) as it is in use today is inaccurate and leads to systematic errors in the calculation process. These mathematical errors may be regarded as an important contributor to the unrealistic results obtained by traditional PSHA for low probabilities of exceedance in recent projects.

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## Abstract An improved seismic hazard model for use in performance‐based earthquake engineering is presented. The model is an improved approximation from the so‐called ‘power law’ model, which is linear in log–log space. The mathematics of the model and uncertainty incorporation is briefly discuss