𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
✦   LIBER   ✦

Econometric analysis of global climate change

✍ Scribed by David I. Stern; Robert K. Kaufmann


Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
1999
Tongue
English
Weight
131 KB
Volume
14
Category
Article
ISSN
1364-8152

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✦ Synopsis


This paper reports on research that applies econometric time series methods to the analysis of global climate change. The aim of this research was to test hypotheses concerning the causes of the historically observed rise in global temperatures. Longer term applications include quantification of the contribution of different forcing variables to historic warming and use of the model as a module in integrated assessment. Research to date has comprised three stages. In the first stage we used the concept of Granger causality and differences between the temperature record in the northern and southern hemispheres to investigate the causes of temperature increase. In the second stage we tested various global change time series for the presence of stochastic trends. We found that most series contain a stochastic trend with the greenhouse gas series containing I(2) stochastic trends. In the third stage we developed a structural time series to investigate some of the hypotheses suggested by the earlier stages and further tested for the presence of an I(2) trend in hemispheric temperature series. We found that the two temperature series share a common I(2) stochastic trend that may have its source in radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases. There is a second non-stationary component that appears only in the northern hemisphere and appears to be related to radiative forcing due to anthropogenic sulphur emissions.


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The models used in the assessment of the effects of global climate change are based on limited knowledge of the fundamental phenomena, for instance, the role of the clouds and of the oceans (IPCC, 1996). Although a general consensus seems to exist among the scientists involved, the very existence of