Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction

✍ Scribed by Francesco Mulargia, Robert J. Geller (auth.), Francesco Mulargia, Robert J. Geller (eds.)

• Publisher: Springer Netherlands
• Year: 2003
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 355
• Series: Nato Science Series 32
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

What is the first thing that ordinary people, for whom journalists are the proxy, ask when they meet a seismologist? It is certainly nothing technical like "What was the stress drop of the last earthquake in the Imperial Valley?" It is a sim­ ple question, which nevertheless summarizes the real demands that society has for seismology. This question is "Can you predict earthquakes?" Regrettably, notwithstanding the feeling of omnipotence induced by modem technology, the answer at present is the very opposite of "Yes, of course". The primary motivation for the question "Can you predict earthquakes?" is practical. No other natural phenomenon has the tremendous destructive power of a large earthquake, a power which is rivaled only by a large scale war. An earth­ quake in a highly industrialized region is capable of adversely affecting the econ­ omy of the whole world for several years. But another motivation is cognitive. The aim of science is 'understanding' nature, and one of the best ways to show that we understand a phenomenon is the ability to make accurate predictions.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Matter....Pages N3-xviii
Modeling earthquakes....Pages 1-19
The classical view of earthquakes....Pages 20-101
The physics of complex systems: applications to earthquake....Pages 102-147
Time-independent hazard....Pages 148-180
Time-dependent hazard estimates and forecasts, and their uncertainties....Pages 181-216
Gathering new data....Pages 217-249
Seismic risk mitigation....Pages 250-283
Earthquake prediction and public policy....Pages 284-329
Back Matter....Pages 330-338

✦ Subjects

Geophysics/Geodesy;Statistical Physics, Dynamical Systems and Complexity