Earthquake and its forecasting

✍ Scribed by T. Rikitake

• Publisher: Springer Netherlands
• Year: 1980
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 785 KB
• Volume: 4
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0343-2521
• DOI: 10.1007/bf00160741

✦ Synopsis

Present statusof earthquake prediction and warning is reviewed with special emphasis on the "Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act" in Japan. Following possible regionalization of occurrences of a great earthquake by means of historical data analysis and crustal strain monitoring, statistics of earthquake precursors are presented along with the nature of precursors of various disciplines.

The precursor time of the first-kind precursor depends on the magnitude of the main shock. The larger the magnitude is, the longer is the precursor time. The precursor of the second kind has a precursor time amounting to about a few hours, while that for the third kind ranges from a few to several tens of days. A practical approach to actual prediction is suggested on the basis of the analysis of precursors. Difficulties in converting a prediction to a warning is briefly pointed out as well.