How much does simplification of probabil
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F. J. Doblas-Reyes; C. A. S. Coelho; D. B. Stephenson
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Article
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2008
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John Wiley and Sons
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English
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## Abstract Probability forecasts from an ensemble are often discretized into a small set of categories before being distributed to the users. This study investigates how such simplification can affect the forecast quality of probabilistic predictions as measured by the Brier score (BS). An example