Disease transmission models with biased partnership selection
β Scribed by James M. Hyman; Jia Li
- Book ID
- 104308528
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 1997
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 984 KB
- Volume
- 24
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0168-9274
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
β¦ Synopsis
In multi-group epidemiological models with nonrandom mixing between people in the different groups, often artificial constraints have to be imposed in order to satisfy the balance conditions. We present and analyze simple selective mixing models governed by systems of ordinary differential equations, where the balance conditions are automatically satisfied as a natural consequence of the equations. These models can be applied in situations where biased partnership formations among people in different risk, social, economic, ethnic, or geographic groups must be accounted to accurately predict the epidemic. Because in these models the actual number of partners an individual has depends upon the distribution of the population, the threshold conditions are a sensitive function of this distribution. We formulate threshold conditions for the model and analyze the sensitivity of these conditions to different population distributions, to changes in transmission rates and to the biasing in the partnership selection. These conditions were determined by either explicitly defining a Liapunov function or by using the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix to calculate a reproductive number. We present numerical examples to illustrate how the reproductive number depends upon the variations in the population and transmission parameters.
π SIMILAR VOLUMES
The models considered for the spread of an infectious disease in a population are of SIRS or SIS type with a standard incidence expression. The varying population size is described by a modification of the logistic differential equation which includes a term for disease-related deaths. The models ha