Diagnosis under compound effects and multiple causes by means of the conditional causal possibility approach
✍ Scribed by Koichi Yamada
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 2004
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 423 KB
- Volume
- 145
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0165-0114
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✦ Synopsis
The paper addresses uncertain reasoning on a causal model given by two layered networks, where nodes in one layer express possible causes and those in the other are possible e ects. Uncertainty of causalities is expressed in a novel manner, i.e. by Conditional Causal Possibilities. The expression has two advantages over the conventional way with conditional possibilities: it expresses the exact degrees of possibility of causalities, and the number of necessary conditional causal possibilities is far smaller than that of conditional possibilities. However, it has a weakness that it cannot handle causalities with compound e ects such as synergistic and canceling e ects by multiple causes.
The paper discusses the weakness and proposes a solution. First, it discusses how to deal with the compound e ects and proposes a new causal model with conditional causal possibilities by multiple causes. Then, it deÿnes a causality consistency problem that calculates possibility of a hypothesis given some observed events, and shows a way to solve the problem.