✦ LIBER ✦

Design issues in the simulation of beliefs in corporate intelligence systems: REALPOLITIK II

✍ Scribed by Norman D. Livergood

Publisher: Elsevier Science
Year: 1993
Weight: 530 KB
Volume: 39
Category: Article
ISSN: 0020-7373
DOI: 10.1006/imms.1993.1055

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

This paper explores preliminary design issues in simulating beliefs in corporate intelligent systems. The study integrates the two fields, belief system simulation and corporate intelligence. Belief system simulation has been carried out primarily within artificial intelligence. Corporate intelligence is a relatively new field in strategic planning within the business technology environment. This paper explores design issues in belief system simulation and suggests how such systems could be used as part of a corporate intelligence capability, increasing the scope and effectiveness of corporate strategic planning.

The belief system of high-placed Japanese business and government leaders is the focus of this preliminary study. The specific issue chosen to illustrate the simulation model is the ($ 25)-billion American disk-drive market. The hypothetical user is a US corporate strategic planning group in a disk-drive company.

The program illustrated in this study determines what changes occur if certain beliefs and belief factor values are input into a simulation system. For example, once having modeled the belief system of the competitor's executives and strategic planners, it would be possible to determine what effect specific beliefs and belief factors such as danger, confidence, importance and emotional charge will have on this belief system.

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