Demystifying Climate Models: A Users Guide to Earth System Models

✍ Scribed by Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood (auth.)

• Publisher: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
• Year: 2016
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 282
• Series: Earth Systems Data and Models 2
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Matter....Pages i-xvii
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Key Concepts in Climate Modeling....Pages 3-12
Components of the Climate System....Pages 13-22
Climate Change and Global Warming....Pages 23-35
Essence of a Climate Model....Pages 37-58
Front Matter....Pages 59-59
Simulating the Atmosphere....Pages 61-85
Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice....Pages 87-108
Simulating Terrestrial Systems....Pages 109-137
Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity....Pages 139-158
Front Matter....Pages 159-159
Model Evaluation....Pages 161-176
Predictability....Pages 177-197
Results of Current Models....Pages 199-220
Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners....Pages 221-236
Summary and Final Thoughts....Pages 237-253
Back Matter....Pages 255-274

✦ Subjects

Civil Engineering; Climate Change Management and Policy; Math. Appl. in Environmental Science