Demography in the EU and in Hungary - snapshot, opportunities and challenges

✍ Scribed by László Vértesy

• Publisher: Institute for Economic Analysis (GEI)
• Year: 2021
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 135
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Demographic phenomena and their long-term consequences are receiving increasing attention in the European Union and in the Member States, including Hungary. The changing composition of the population, declining birth rates and ageing are challenging societies and economies alike. In this context, it is important to analyse demographic trends, understand their causes and consequences and prepare for future challenges. This paper examines in detail the demographic situation in the European Union and in Hungary. As a single economic and political area, the EU is facing specific demographic trends, which are compounded by regional differences and the specificities of each Member State. In the case of Hungary, demographic trends are of particular importance as the country faces unique challenges in terms of population decline and ageing.

✦ Table of Contents

able of contents
I. Demography in general ............................................................................................ 8
1. Demography theories .......................................................................................... 9
1.1. Ancient............................................................................................................. 9
1.2. Middle Ages...................................................................................................10
1.3. 18th - 19th century theories..........................................................................11
1.4. 20th century theories...................................................................................12
1.5. Discussion......................................................................................................16
2. Forecasts...............................................................................................................20
2.1. Club of Rome................................................................................................20
2.2. KPMG...............................................................................................................21
2.3. University of Lund ......................................................................................23
2.4. United Nations .............................................................................................24
3. Demography in different ways........................................................................ 26
3.1. Demography as a weapon ....................................................................... 27
3.2. Labour migration and population..........................................................30
3.3. Population policy ........................................................................................32
3.4. Limits to growth..........................................................................................34
3.5. Quality of the population ..........................................................................35
3.6. Pandemics, Covid and Baby boom ........................................................35
3.7. LGBTQ.............................................................................................................46
II. European Union........................................................................................................47
4. General overview ................................................................................................49
4.1. Population structure..................................................................................49
4.2. Eurostat, 2020..............................................................................................60
4.3. Green Paper, 2021.......................................................................................63
5. Population and family policy............................................................................65
5.1. Germany ........................................................................................................70
5.2. Austria............................................................................................................75
5.3. Italy ................................................................................................................. 77
5.4. France ............................................................................................................ 79
5.5. Spain................................................................................................................81
5.6. Poland ............................................................................................................82
6. Declining population...........................................................................................835
III. Hungary.....................................................................................................................87
7. How many of us are there? ..............................................................................93
7.1. Hungary .........................................................................................................94
7.2. Carpathian Basin ........................................................................................ 96
7.3. Europe............................................................................................................ 97
7.4. Outside Europe............................................................................................ 99
8. Our population policy ........................................................................................ 101
8.1. Generations .................................................................................................102
8.2. Current situation....................................................................................... 105
8.3. Forecasts ...................................................................................................... 111
9. The economic opportunities.............................................................................116
10. Immigration..........................................................................................................122
IV. Summary .................................................................................................................127
List of sources .............................................................................................................129