Prior to World War II, higher education was both highly selective and quite exclusive. Attendance was generally limited to those with proven intellectual ability and the economic means to pay their own way. In this environment, institutions had no need for enrollment projections. The adoption of the GI bill and the emergence of federal financial aid programs, however, changed the higher education landscape. Starting in the 1950s, higher education enrollments grew steadily. The number of public higher education institutions increased, and most higher education leaders and policymakers began to perceive access as one of the most important missions of public institutions. Demographics took on a new importance as planners tried to find ways to accommodate increasing enrollment demand as the postwar baby boom came of age and later to maintain stable enrollments when the college-age population declined.
In the 1990s, higher education faces a new dilemma. The children of the postwar-baby boom generation began reaching college-going age in the mid 1990s. Based on demographic trends, higher education planners project significant increases in enrollment demand as we enter the twenty-first century. Will higher education be able to accommodate this demand?
This chapter discusses the demographic trends that are leading higher education planners to project significant increases in enrollments between now and the first part of the twenty-first century. It examines the impact that the baby boom-echo or tidal wave II 1 generation and the changes in the over twentyfour-year-old population will have on enrollments and discusses why actual higher education enrollments may fall short of these projections.