Decoding a message about the market for oil

✍ Scribed by Fleming, David

• Book ID: 101281561
• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 1999
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 178 KB
• Volume: 9
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0961-0405
• DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1099-0976(199907/08)9:4<125::aid-eet199>3.0.co;2-6

✦ Synopsis

Information from the International Energy Agency (IEA) casts a totally new light on prospects for the world supply of crude oil. According to data published in the latest issue of World Energy Outlook, production of conventional crude oil by the 'rest-of-the-world' producers is already at a plateau, and will start its long decline towards exhaustion as soon as 2001. This will give effective control of crude oil supplies to the five major Middle East OPEC producers, whose market share -at present just short of 30% -is set to rise towards 50% in the next decade. The last time this group had a market share of 30% or more was in the 1970s. This article summarizes the situation, reviews consequences and proposes a way forward.