Decision Economics: Complexity of Decisions and Decisions for Complexity (Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 1009)

✍ Scribed by Edgardo Bucciarelli (editor), Shu-Heng Chen (editor), Juan Manuel Corchado (editor)

• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 334
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This book is based on the International Conference on Decision Economics (DECON 2019). Highlighting the fact that important decision-making takes place in a range of critical subject areas and research fields, including economics, finance, information systems, psychology, small and international business, management, operations, and production, the book focuses on analytics as an emerging synthesis of sophisticated methodology and large data systems used to guide economic decision-making in an increasingly complex business environment.

DECON 2019 was organised by the University of Chieti-Pescara (Italy), the National Chengchi University of Taipei (Taiwan), and the University of Salamanca (Spain), and was held at the Escuela politécnica Superior de Ávila, Spain, from 26th to 28th June, 2019. Sponsored by IEEE Systems Man and Cybernetics Society, Spain Section Chapter, and IEEE Spain Section (Technical Co-Sponsor), IBM, Indra, Viewnext, Global Exchange, AEPIA-and-APPIA, with the funding supporting of the Junta de Castilla y León, Spain (ID: SA267P18-Project co-financed with FEDER funds) 

✦ Table of Contents

Preface
Decision Economics: A novel discipline.
References
Organisation
General Chairs
International Program Committee
Organising Committee
Contents
The Editors
Calibrating Methods for Decision Making Under Uncertainty
1 Introduction
2 Decision Making Under Uncertainty
2.1 Clairvoyance
3 Three Utility Functions
3.1 Constant Absolute Risk Aversion, CARA
3.2 Constant Relative Risk Aversion, CRRA
3.3 The Dual-Risk-Profile DRP Function from Prospect Theory
4 The Experiments, by Simulation
5 Results
6 Discussion
7 Conclusion
References
Coordination and Search for New Solutions
1 Introduction
2 Outline of the Simulation Model
3 Simulation Experiments
4 Results and Discussion
5 Conclusion
References
Appeasement or Radicalism: A Game Between Intruders and Occupiers
1 Introduction
2 Model
2.1 Setting
2.2 Solution
3 Further Discussion
4 Conclusion
References
Coping with Bounded Rationality, Uncertainty, and Scarcity in Product Development Decisions: Experimental Research
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Experiment Setup
2.1 Puzzle Game
2.2 Variables
2.3 Experiments
3 Results
3.1 Evidence of Learning
4 Conclusions and Discussion
Acknowledgement
References
What Next for Experimental Economics? Searching for an Alternative Pathway Founded on Mathematical Methods
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 The Scientific Method in Both Economic Theory and Experimental Economics: The Centrality of Mathematics
3 Decomposing Price-Effect: The DP-E Algorithm
4 Conclusions and Future Research
Appendix to Sect. 3
References
Generating Neural Archetypes to Instruct Fast and Interpretable Decisions
1 Introduction
2 GH-ARCH
3 Experimental Results
3.1 Understanding Archetypes
3.2 Making Sense of Archetypes and Decisions in Economics
4 Conclusions
References
Strength Investing - A Computable Methodology for Capturing Strong Trends in Price-Time Space in Stocks, Futures, and Forex
Abstract
1 Strength Investing versus Value Investing and Trend Following
2 Plausibility of Strength Investing - Source of Profitability
3 Strength Investing in Stock Markets
4 Tactical Strategies of Trend Trading
References
A Deep Learning Framework for Stock Prediction Using LSTM
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Methodology
2.1 Training and Test Sets
2.2 Features and Target
2.3 LSTM Networks
2.4 Benchmark Models
2.4.1 Linear Regression
2.4.2 KNN
2.4.3 ARIMA
2.5 Data
3 Empirical Results
3.1 Main Results
4 Conclusion
Acknowledgments
References
Testing Fiscal Solvency in Macroeconomics
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Testing for Fiscal Solvency
3 Conclusions
References
CEO Gender and Financial Performance: Empirical Evidence of Women on Board from EMEA Banks
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Literature Review About Board Diversity
3 Methodology
3.1 Endogeneity
3.2 The GMM model
4 Empirical models
5 Conclusions
References
The Minimum Heterogeneous Agent Configuration to Realize the Future Price Time Series Similar to Any Given Spot Price Time Series in the AI Market Experiment
1 AI Market Behaviors Hinted by FICA's Behaviors
2 Our New Remarkable Results
2.1 Future Price Formations by the Default Agent Configuration
2.2 Future Price Formations in the New Special Environment
3 The Importance of Interacting Price Formation Among the Strategies
3.1 Self-correlation and the Partial Correlation to Lag 10 with 95% White-Noise Confidence Bands
3.2 Analyzing the Self-referencing Factor in View of Some Agent Behaviors
References
A Lab Experiment Using a Natural Language Interface to Extract Information from Data: The NLIDB Game
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Some Foundational Issues
3 Designing a Natural Language User Interface
4 Designing a Lab Experiment: The NLIDB Game
5 Results and Discussion
6 Conclusions and Future Research
References
The Interdependence of Shared Context: Autonomous Human-Machine Teams
Abstract
1 Introduction
1.1 Introduction to Interdependence
1.2 Literature on Interdependence
1.3 Our Previous Findings on Interdependence
1.4 New Theory
1.5 Conclusions
References
Games with Multiple Alternatives Applied to Voting Systems
1 Introduction
2 Preliminaries
2.1 Simple Games with Multiple Alternatives
2.2 Power Indices with Multiple Alternatives
3 Real Voting Systems
3.1 Nassau County Board of Supervisors of New York
3.2 Voting Alternatives in the Spanish Parliament
3.3 House of Commons of the United Kingdom
4 Conclusions and Future Work
References
Measuring the Macroeconomic Uncertainty Based on the News Text by Supervised LDA for Investor's Decision Making
1 Introduction
1.1 Measurement of the Macroeconomic Uncertainty
1.2 Our Contributions
2 Related Works
3 Datasets
3.1 Text Data
3.2 Numeric Data
4 Process
4.1 Text Data Preprocessing
4.2 Numeric Data Prepossessing
4.3 Topic Classification
4.4 Uncertainty Measurement
5 Topic Model
5.1 Supervised Latent Dirichlet Allocation
6 Results
6.1 Topic Classification
6.2 Macro Economic Uncertainty Index
6.3 Correlation with the Volatilities of Other Market Indices
7 Conclusions and Future Works
References
Mapping the Geography of Italian Knowledge
Abstract
1 Introduction and Foundational Issues
2 Data and Methods
2.1 The Neural Tool and the Database Used
2.2 The Knowledge Complexity Index (KCI)
3 The Geography of Italian Complex Knowledge
4 Conclusions
References
Hot Trading and Price Stability Under Media Supervision in the Chinese Stock Market
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Empirical Design and Data
2.1 Turnover Calculation
2.2 Composite Transparency
2.3 Media Coverage
2.4 Momentum Calculations
2.5 Data Description
3 Empirical Outcomes
3.1 The Two-Way Sorted Conditional Turnover-Momentum Portfolio
3.2 The Two-Way Sorted Conditional Transparency-Momentum Portfolio
3.3 The Two-Way Sorted Conditional Coverage-Momentum Portfolio
4 Robustness Checks
4.1 Extensive Formation and Holding Periods for Port (O, R) Portfolio
4.2 Extensive Formation and Holding Periods for Port (T, R) Portfolio
4.3 Extensive Formation and Holding Periods for Port (C, R) Portfolio
5 Conclusions
References
Does Cultural Distance Affect International Trade in the Eurozone?
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Cultural Distance
2.1 Factors Influencing Trade Between Countries: A Brief Summary
3 Methods: Cultural Distance Index and Impact on International Trade
4 Data
5 Results
5.1 Cultural Distance Among European Countries
5.2 The Effect of International Trade
6 Conclusions
References
Making Sense of Economics Datasets with Evolutionary Coresets
1 Introduction
2 Background
2.1 Machine Learning and Classification
2.2 Coreset Discovery
2.3 Multi-objective Evolutionary Algorithms
3 EvoCore
4 Experimental Results and Discussion
4.1 Meta-analysis
4.2 Making Sense of Coresets and Decisions in Economics
5 Conclusions
References
Understanding Microeconomics Through Cognitive Science: Making a Case for Early Entrepreneurial Decisions
Abstract
1 Introduction and Motivation
2 Epistemological Foundation: Defining Cognitive Agents
3 The Problem Space: Analytical Formalisation
4 The Solution Space: Searching for Satisficing Alternatives
5 Towards a Meta-Cognitive Generalisation
6 Conclusions and Future Research
References
Concept Cloud-Based Sentiment Visualization for Financial Reviews
1 Introduction
2 CSCV
2.1 Extension of Word-Level Sentiment Using the LRP Method
2.2 Word-Cloud Based Text-Visualization
3 Experimental Evaluation
3.1 Text Corpus
3.2 Original Word Sentiment Assignment Property
3.3 Contextual Word Sentiment Assignment Property
3.4 Other Experimental Settings
3.5 Result
4 Text Visualization
5 Related Works
6 Conclusion
References
Population Aging and Productivity. Does Culture Matter? Some Evidence from the EU
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Aging, Productivity and Culture
3 Method and Results
4 Conclusion
References
Complex Decision-Making Process Underlying Individual Travel Behavior and Its Reflection in Applied Travel Models
Abstract
1 Evolution of Approaches for Modeling Travel Choices
2 Limited Knowledge and Learning from Individual Experience
3 Assessment of Potential for Machine Learning (ML) Methods in Transportation Modeling
4 Important Future Directions
References
Learning Uncertainty in Market Trend Forecast Using Bayesian Neural Networks
1 Introduction
2 Data
2.1 Dataset
2.2 Prediction Task
2.3 Feature Engineering
3 Method
3.1 Convolutional Neural Networks
3.2 Dropout for Bayesian Neural Networks
3.3 Proposed Bayesian CNN
3.4 Prediction with Bayesian CNN Model
4 Results and Discussion
4.1 Comparison Method
4.2 Training
4.3 Modeling Results
4.4 Probability Prediction
5 Conclusion
References
Amortizing Securities as a Pareto-Efficient Reward Mechanism
1 The Model
1.1 Innovation-Backed Securities (IBS)
1.2 More Modeling Elements
2 Designing the Shape of Amortizing Securities
2.1 The Decentralized Equilibrium Innovation Rate
2.2 The Socially Optimal Innovation Rate
2.3 The Socially Optimal Shape of Amortizing Securities
3 Concluding Remarks
References
A Micro-level Analysis of Regional Economic Activity Through a PCA Approach
1 Introduction
2 The Economy of the Province: An Overview
3 An over-Time Analysis of Economic Macro-categories
4 A Principal Component Analysis of the Provincial Economy
5 Conclusions and Future Research
References
Can a Free Market Be Complete?
1 Introduction
2 Contracts as Algorithms
3 The Question of Market Completeness
4 A Complete World
5 To Own or Not to Own ...
6 Conclusion
References
The Self-Organizing Map: An Methodological Note
Abstract
1 Introduction and Fundamental Background
2 The Self-Organizing Algorithm
2.1 Applications and Extensions
3 Conclusions and Future SOM Development
References
The Study of Co-movement Mechanisms Between the Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong Capital Markets
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Problem Statement
3 Macroeconomic Factors
4 Microeconomic Factors
5 Conclusion – Economic Meaning and Policy Recommendations
References
In Favor of Multicultural Integration: An Experimental Design to Assess Young Migrants’ Literacy Rate
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Context Analysis
2.1 Foreign Students in the Italian Educational System
3 Two Research Perspectives
4 The Importance and Necessity of Language Assessment in Multicultural Educational Settings
5 Experimental Design
5.1 Experimental Task
5.2 Bioprofile
5.3 Achievement Test
5.4 Placement Test
5.5 Proficiency Test BICS - CALP
6 Conclusion and Future Research
References
Coping with Long-Term Performance Industrial Paving: A Finite Element Model to Support Decision-Making Structural Design
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Purpose of the Work
3 Finite Element Model Description
3.1 Basic Logical Scheme of DTFEM
3.2 DTFEM Construction
4 DTFEM Processing
4.1 Case 1: Results
4.2 Case 2: Results
4.3 Summary
5 Conclusions and Future Research
Acknowledgments
References
Does Trust Create Trust? A Further Experimental Evidence from an Extra-Laboratory Investment Game
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 From Social Psychology to Economics Experimentation
3 Testing Norms of Trust and Cooperation
3.1 Experimental Procedures
3.2 Preliminary Results
4 Conclusions
References
Evolution of Business Collaboration Networks: An Exploratory Study Based on Multiple Factor Analysis
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 Inter-organizational Networks and Collaboration
3 Methods and Data
3.1 Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA)
3.2 Networks and Data Preparation
4 Results
4.1 Intra-structure
4.2 Inter-structure
4.3 Clustering
5 Conclusions and Final Considerations
References
Ethics and Decisions in Distributed Technologies: A Problem of Trust and Governance Advocating Substantive Democracy
Abstract
1 Ethics and Decision in Distributed Technology
1.1 Philosophy as Pilot of Technology? the Moralizing of Things and the Informatization of Morality
1.2 Distributed Technologies: Strengths and Weaknesses of an Announced Technological Revolution
1.3 “Distributed”, the Quality Beyond the Border of Technology: The Case of PERSONA Project
1.4 The Importance of Ethics and Decision-Making to Guide the Environmental Architecture of Technology
2 Distributed Technologies, Trust, and Governance of Democracy
2.1 Trust, a Complex Human Feeling
2.2 Are We Experiencing a Real “Crisis of Trust”?
2.3 The Crisis as Change of Trust-in-Governance Model
2.4 Democracy for Trusting Distributed Technology
3 Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
The Ascending Staircase of the Metaphor: From a Rhetorical Device to a Method for Revealing Cognitive Processes
Abstract
1 Introduction
2 The Ascending Staircase Paradigm of the Metaphor
3 A Cognitive Approach to Metaphor
3.1 Metaphor: A Growing Polygonal Chain
3.2 Metaphor: Ornatus Element vs. Cognitive Element
3.3 Metaphor: Terms and Definitions
4 Metaphor as a Cognitive Device in Educational Activity
5 Conclusion and Future Research
References