โ Scribed by Herbert H. Einstein; Duane A. Labreche; Michael J. Markow; Gregory B. Baecher
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
Exploration planning is a process of decision making under uncertainty. The decision if and where to explore depends on construction strategies and cost; the selection of construction strategies depends on knowledge of geologic conditions which are not known with certainty before exploration is performed. The proposed application of decision analysis provides a relatively simple approach to the tunnel exploration problem. The existing knowledge of geology, the possible construction strategies and their costs, the reliability and the cost of considered exploration methods are used to establish if and where exploration is beneficial. The resulting hierarchy of locations where exploration is beneficial and the comparison of expected values of exploration for different exploration methods provides the basis for the selection of a particular site and method. Graphical and simple numerical means have been created that make the proposed approach a convenient and fast tool in the hands of the decision maker.
๐ SIMILAR VOLUMES
Decision analysis is an explicit, quantitative approach to making choices under uncertainty. A problem is broken into component modules and structured into a decision tree which attempts to account for all possible outcomes. Outcomes are assigned probabilities of occurring and utilities (measure of