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De Finetti's subjectivism, the assessment of probabilities and the evaluation of evidence: a commentary for forensic scientists

✍ Scribed by F. Taroni; C.G.G. Aitken; P. Garbolino

Publisher: Elsevier Science
Year: 2001
Tongue: English
Weight: 878 KB
Volume: 41
Category: Article
ISSN: 1355-0306
DOI: 10.1016/s1355-0306(01)71879-5

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

This paper presents the historical and philosophical definition of subjective probabilities (also called degree of belief or Bayesian probabilities). It presents a case for the scientist to use subjective probabilities in the process of parameter estimation and evidence evaluation under the Bayesian framework. It is emphasised that Bayesian methodology does not pretend to get the 'true' probabilities: it is an effective method to analyse, criticise, check the 'coherence' of people's opinions, and to help them in revising their opinions in a 'coherent' way.

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