Abstract
A cell‐based long‐term hydrological model (CELTHYM) that can be integrated with a geographical information system (GIS) was developed to predict continuous stream flow from small agricultural watersheds. The CELTHYM uses a cell‐by‐cell soil moisture balance approach. For surface runoff estimation, the curve number technique considering soil moisture on a daily basis was used, and release rate was used to estimate baseflow. Evapotranspiration was computed using the FAO modified Penman equation that considered land‐use‐based crop coefficients, soil moisture and the influence of topography on radiation. A rice paddy field water budget model was also adapted for the specific application of the model to East Asia. Model sensitivity analysis was conducted to obtain operational information about the model calibration parameters. The CELTHYM was calibrated and verified with measured runoff data from the WS#1 and WS#3 watersheds of the Seoul National University, Department of Agricultural Engineering, in Hwaseong County, Kyounggi Province, South Korea. The WS#1 watershed is comprised of about 35·4% rice paddy fields and 42·3% forest, whereas the WS#3 watershed is about 85·0% forest and 11·5% rice paddy fields. The CELTHYM was calibrated for the parameter release rate, K, and soil moisture storage coefficient, STC, and results were compared with the measured runoff data for 1986. The validation results for WS#1 considering all daily stream flow were poor with R^2^, E^2^ and RMSE having values of 0·40, −6·63 and 9·69 (mm), respectively, but validation results for days without rainfall were statistically significant (R^2^ = 0·66). Results for WS#3 showed good agreement with observed data for all days, and R^2^, E^2^ and RMSE were 0·92, 0·91 and 2·23 (mm), respectively, suggesting potential for CELTHYM application to other watersheds. The direct runoff and water balance components for watershed WS#1 with significant areas of paddy fields did not perform well, suggesting that additional study of these components is needed. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.