encourages include the following: the study of the library is a grand institution, the father gives his daughter an opportunity that was once taken for granted. This scenario, however de-meaningful exercise, the future is not predictable, the future is not predetermined, people are not powerless over the future, pressing to consider, forces us to imagine libraries as archives of last resort. future outcomes can be influenced by present choices, and there are generally accepted ways to ''study the future.'' This last So, could either of these or any of the other scenarios approximate the future? Probably not, but that is beside the point. assumption leads us to the lengthy introduction-a preliminary overview of how to study the future. Some modern methodolo-Perhaps the more important question is: Taken as a whole, do these scenarios stretch our thinking helpfully in charting the gies used by futurists are described, including prediction, genius forecasting (also known as speculative fiction), trend extrapola-library's future? Yes, they do. They challenge us to reexamine our fundamental assumptions about the public library's im-tion or projection, consensus methods which involve proscribing ''experts,'' simulation techniques (cross-impact matrix pending years. These specific futures are not important except to the extent that they cause us to reflect, understand, and stra-analysis or modeling), and scenario analysis.
The majority of the book is taken up by the eight scenarios, tegize. For the most part, Shuman's scenarios do just that.
One of the weaknesses of this book is the lack of background with the stylistic approach, for the most part, being comprised of dialogue between fictional characters. The stories themselves on scenario analysis and its nexus with strategy. It is strategy development, after all, that is the clear benefit of the process. demonstrate a great deal of creative thought. However, the execution-the characters and their dialogue-often lacks imagi-Scenario planning, a tool historically used by business thinkers to help prepare for the future, assumes that there is uncertainty nation and substance. Shuman also provides an index and selected bibliography of readings relevant to the study of the and ambiguity in any situation faced by the futurist/strategist. One contemporary view of strategy and scenario planning sug-future, with special attention given to the future of the public library. Additionally, a ''future quotes'' section includes various gests the process involves five steps: (1) acknowledgment of goals, (2) assessment of institutional factors (including ability quotes, arranged alphabetically by author, showing a ''broad spectrum of opinions about the future, revealing both the opti-to change), (3) evaluation of the environment (current and future), (4) assessment, via scenarios, of the relationship be-mistic and pessimistic sides of human nature and thought'' (p. 153).
tween institution and environment, and (5) development of ways to improve this relationship. With this understanding in Shuman's eight future scenarios center on the public library, which comes to be known as the ''cybrary.'' They range from mind, i.e., that scenarios are part of a larger strategy-setting process, Shuman's book could be either a useful jump-start in modestly strange to thoroughly bizarre. Below, I highlight two scenarios that give a sense of the book's flavor and scope.
preparing for the future or, alternatively, a primer for readers to chart their own scenarios and, ultimately, strategies. Shuman's first scenario takes place in the year 2022. The public library has taken on a new role, having discarded its books in favor of an advanced form of virtual reality known as ''experience technology.'' The menu of experiences from which Amy E. Sanidas patrons can order ranges from climbing Mount Everest to speak-San Francisco Consulting Group ing and understanding Chinese during a day in Beijing. The 49 Stevenson Street public library has been utterly transformed, although people San Francisco, CA 94105 still visit it in search of enlightenment and entertainment. While E-mail: