Crash states and the equity premium: Solving one puzzle raises another
✍ Scribed by Kevin D. Salyer
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 1998
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 641 KB
- Volume
- 22
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0165-1889
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
This paper examines the behavior of asset returns as predicted by the consumptionbased capital asset pricing model within an artificial economy that includes a low probability, crash state in consumption and dividends. It is demonstrated that the behavior of agents' intertemporal marginal rate of substitution in such an economy is consistent with the Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) frontier even though the consumption process in the model is calibrated to actual data, preferences are time separable, and agents' relative risk aversion is restricted to moderate levels. Moreover, as demonstrated by Rietz (1988), the crash-state economy can replicate the mean of excess returns on equity, i.e. the equity premium. However, the model severely underpredicts the volatility of excess returns.