Dating Business Cycle Turning Points / Marcelle Chauvet And James D. Hamilton -- Combining Predictors & Combining Information In Modelling : Forecasting U.s. Recession Probabilities And Output Growth / Michael P. Clements And Ana Beatriz Galvão -- The Importance Of Nonlinearity In Reproducing Business Cycle Features / James Morley And Jeremy Piger -- The Vector Floor And Ceiling Model / Gary Koop And Simon Potter -- A New Framework To Analyze Business Cycle Synchronization / Maximo Camacho And Gabriel Perez-quiros -- Non-linearity And Instability In The Euro Area / Massimiliano Marcellino -- Nonlinear Modelling Of Autoregressive Structural Breaks In Some Us Macroeconomic Series / George Kapetanios And Elias Tzavalis -- Trend-cycle Decomposition Models With Smooth-transition Parameters : Evidence From U.s. Economic Time Series / Siem Jan Koopman, Kai Ming Lee And Soon Yip Wong -- Modeling Inflation And Money Demand Using A Fourier-series Approximation / Ralf Becker, Walter Enders And Stan Hurn -- Random Walk Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models / Heather M. Anderson And Chin Nam Low -- Nonlinearity And Structural Change In Interest Rate Reaction Functions For The Us, Uk And Germany / Mehtap Kesriyeli, Denise R. Osborn And Marianne Sensier -- State Asymmetries In The Effects Of Monetary-policy Shocks On Output : Some New Evidence For The Euro-area / Juan J. Dolado And Ramón María-dolores -- Non-linear Dynamics In Output, Real Exchange Rates And Real Money Balances : Norway, 1830-2003 / Q. Farooq Akram, Øyvind Eitrheim And Lucio Sarno -- A Predictive Comparison Of Some Simple Long- And Short Memory Models Of Daily U.s. Stock Returns, With Emphasis On Business Cycle Effects / Geetesh Bhardwaj And Norman R. Swanson -- Nonlinear Modeling Of The Changing Lag Structure In U.s. Housing Construction / Christian M. Dahl And Tamer Kulaksızoğlu. [editors] Costas Milas, Philip Rothman, Dick Van Dijk. Includes Bibliographical References And Index.