Contract modifications and the basis behavior of live cattle futures

✍ Scribed by James E. Newsome; George H. K. Wang; M. E. Boyd; Marty J. Fuller

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 2004
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 194 KB
• Volume: 24
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0270-7314
• DOI: 10.1002/fut.10128

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to assess the basis behavior of the Live Cattle Futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) before and after the 1995 contract changes. Additionally, an alternative method of basis calculation utilizing weighted mean futures prices versus settlement futures prices was compared to determine which method provides a better representation of the basis level.

Within a regression model with heteroskedascity error framework, we found that the level of nearby basis in the period after June 1995 has shifted lower and the average monthly open interest of net commercial long positions has substantially increased after the contract modifications. These empirical results are consistent with the notion that more long activity entered the market in response to the contract modifications. Additionally, an alternative (new) measure of basis calculation (cash price minus weighted mean futures price) produced similar results to two other commonly used measures. In conclusion, the 1995 contract changes have neither increased nor decreased the volatility of live cattle basis. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:557–590, 2004