Praise for Conflict Analysis
Title Page
Copyright Page
Contents
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Part I: Understanding Deadly Conflict
Chapter 1: Global Conflict in the Twenty-First Century
Trends
Costs of Conflict
Perils of Prediction
Conflict Analysis and Adaptive Leadership
Chapter 2: Causes of Conflict and Peace
The Curve of Conflict
The Strategic Dimension
The Political Dimension
The Socioeconomic Dimension
The Psychological Dimension
The Cultural Dimension
Violence as a Strategic Choice
Chapter 3: Risk Assessment and Early Warning
Early Warning Watchlists
Conflict Metrics Instruments
Environmental Degradation and Climate Change
Genocide and Mass Atrocities
Early Warning at the Local Level
Part II: Tools for the Trade
Chapter 4: Conflict Assessment Frameworks
Self-Assessment
Gathering Information
Four-Step Assessment Process
Transition to Planning
Chapter 5: Narrative Analysis
Listening as a Peacebuilding Technique
Who: Leaders and Constituents
What and Why: Positions Versus Interests and Needs
When: Mythic Histories
Where: Territorial Narratives
How: Strategy and Tactics
Chapter 6: Conflict Mapping and Systems Mapping
Conflict Mapping
Systems Mapping
Chapter 7: Scenario Analysis
Scenario-Building Techniques
Scenario Analysis in Conflict Management
Visualizing Scenarios
Selecting and Tracking Indicators
Linking Vision to Action
Part III: From Analysis to Action
Chapter 8: Navigating Cognitive Minefields
Groupthink
Black Swans
Psychic Numbing
Chapter 9: Conflict Analysis in the Planning Process
Framing the Problem
Defining Objectives
Situation Analysis
Designing a Plan of Action
Measuring Progress and Adapting to Change
Conclusion: The Value of Collaborative Conflict Analysis
Appendices
1. Estimating Mortality from Violent Conflict
2. Early Warning Watchlists and Reports
3. Conflict Metrics
4. Private Strategic Forecasters
5. Conflict Assessment Frameworks
6. U.S. Institute of Peace Narrative Analysis Framework
7. Conflict Mapping Tools
8. Template for a Logical Framework Matrix (Logframe)
Glossary
Resources
Index
About the Author
United States Institute of Peace Press
Board of Directors
Back Cover