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Comparison of the performance of neural network methods and Cox regression for censored survival data

✍ Scribed by Anny Xiang; Pablo Lapuerta; Alex Ryutov; Jonathan Buckley; Stanley Azen


Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2000
Tongue
English
Weight
99 KB
Volume
34
Category
Article
ISSN
0167-9473

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✦ Synopsis


Strategies that have been developed to extend NN prediction methods to accommodate right-censored data include methods due to Faraggi-Simon, Liestol-Andersen-Andersen, and a modiΓΏcation of the Buckley-James method. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, we evaluated the performance of all three NN methods with that of Cox regression models which included main e ects and interactions, when interactions exist. Using the EPILOG PLUSJ PROC NEURAL utility, feed-forward back-propagation networks were examined under nine designs representing a variety of experimental conditions which varied (a) the number of inputs and interactions, (b) the degree of censoring, (c) proportional vs. non-proportional hazards, and (d) sample size.

Minimization methods were implemented that e ciently determined optimal parameters. The C-index was used as a measure of performance. For the testing phase of the study, none of the NN methods outperformed Cox regression. Compared to Cox regression, the Faraggi-Simon, Buckley-James, and Liestol-Andersen-Andersen methods performed as well as Cox regression for 7; 5 and 1 of the nine designs, respectively. The e ect on performance of modeling interactions in Cox regression, varying the number of intervals in the Liestol-Andersen-Andersen method, and varying the NN architecture are also presented. The results of our study suggest that NNs can serve as e ective methods for modeling National Institutes of Health Grants: R03 HL55150 and NS RR33899.


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