Comparison of GCM-Simulated Daily Maximum Temperatures with Observations in South Moravia
✍ Scribed by Jaroslava Kalvová; Ivana Nemešová
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1997
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 205 KB
- Volume
- 8
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1180-4009
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✦ Synopsis
Three-dimensional global circulation models (GCMs) are the `state of the art' tools for projecting possible changes in climate. GCM simulations of the present climate have frequently been validated against observations in terms of time averaged variables, while time series, particularly daily series, have not been studied extensively. In this paper, 30-year simulations of daily maximum grid point temperatures are compared with the 30-year series recorded in Moravia. Attention is focused on annual cycles and autocorrelation functions. In estimating the autocorrelation coecients, the standard procedure and jack-knife method are applied to the series with and without seasonal decomposition. It is shown that the jack-knife estimates of variance are generally smaller than those assessed by a standard technique for the series with seasonal cycle. However, if seasonal cycle is removed from the series, the jack-knife estimates of variance may become larger. The t-statistic shows that dierences in autocorrelation among the stations as well as among the grid points are not statistically signi®cant while dierences between the stations and grid points proved to be statistically signi®cant.