The predictive performance of a large-scale structural econometric model (SEM) of the Italian economy-the Prometeia model-is compared in this paper with a vector autoregressive (VAR) model estimated for a selection of six main variables of interest. The paper concentrates on the quarterly ex-ante fo
Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy
✍ Scribed by Jan P. A. M. Jacobs; Kenneth F. Wallis
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2005
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 173 KB
- Volume
- 20
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0883-7252
- DOI
- 10.1002/jae.839
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Abstract
The structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and simultaneous equation macroeconometric model (SEM) styles of empirical macroeconomic modelling are compared and contrasted, with reference to two models of the UK economy, namely the long‐run structural VAR model of Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin and the COMPACT model. Various styles of impulse response analysis are also compared and contrasted, and used to illustrate model properties. A ‘reverse engineering’ procedure is used to infer long‐run relations of COMPACT comparable to the GLPS cointegrating relations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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