✦ LIBER ✦

Communicating uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts: mission impossible?

✍ Scribed by Maria-Helena Ramos; Thibault Mathevet; Jutta Thielen; Florian Pappenberger

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 2010
Tongue: English
Weight: 511 KB
Volume: 17
Category: Article
ISSN: 1350-4827
DOI: 10.1002/met.202

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

There is a common agreement in the scientific community that communicating uncertain hydro‐meteorological forecasts to water managers, civil protection authorities and other stakeholders is far from being a resolved issue. This paper focuses on the communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts to decision‐makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario‐based reservoir operation. Results from case studies conducted together with flood forecasting experts in Europe and operational forecasters from the hydroelectric sector in France are presented. They illustrate some key issues on dealing with probabilistic hydro‐meteorological forecasts and communicating uncertainty in operational flood forecasting. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES

Examining the use of weather forecasts i

Examining the use of weather forecasts in decision scenarios: results from a US survey with implications for uncertainty communication

✍ Rebecca E. Morss; Jeffrey K. Lazo; Julie L. Demuth 📂 Article 📅 2010 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 272 KB

## Abstract The hydrometeorological community has limited understanding of how people interpret forecast information and use it in decision making, hampering effective forecast communication. This article addresses these issues in the context of weather prediction, focusing especially on forecast u