Common risk factors in the U.S. and UK interest rate swap markets: Evidence from a nonlinear vector autoregression approach
✍ Scribed by Ilias Lekkos; Costas Milas
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2004
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 595 KB
- Volume
- 24
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0270-7314
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Abstract
This paper produces evidence in support of the existence of common risk factors in the U.S. and UK interest
rate swap markets. Using a multivariate smooth transition autoregression (STVAR) framework, we show
that the dynamics of the U.S. and UK swap spreads are best described by a regime‐switching model. We
identify the existence of two distinct regimes in U.S. and UK swap spreads; one is characterized by a
“flat” term structure of U.S. interest rates and the other is characterized by an
“upward” sloping U.S. term structure. In addition, we show that there exist significant asymmetries
on the impact of the common risk factors on the U.S. and UK swap spreads. Shocks to UK oriented risk factors
have a strong effect on the U.S. swap markets during the “flat” slope regime but a very limited
effect otherwise. On the other hand, U.S. risk factors have a significant impact on the UK swap markets in both
regimes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:221–250, 2004