𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
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Comment: Expert opinion and information theory

✍ Scribed by Stephen D. Unwin

Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
1989
Tongue
English
Weight
170 KB
Volume
26
Category
Article
ISSN
0951-8320

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✦ Synopsis

Two information-theoretic approaches to uncertainty analysis are described in this issue. 1'2 Although they share reliance upon similar technical principles, they differ substantially in the implementation of those principles. The paper of which I am an author 1 expounds an approach to uncertainty characterization with the following attributes:

(1) It requires only a simply structured representation of parameter magnitude uncertainties, largely in the form of uncertainty bands. This minimizes the need for probabilistic considerations on the part of substantive experts. (2) It permits the probabilistic propagation of uncertainties despite the nonprobabilistic form of the expert assessments of uncertainty.

(3) It isolates probabilistic assumptions and conventions of the uncertainty analysis in a way that renders them accessible to scrutiny and to modification for sensitivity assessment. (4) The algorithm used to generate probability distributions has a sound conceptual and technical basis in information theory.

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