Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

✍ Scribed by Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen, Diana Liverman

• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Year: 2011
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 541
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Providing an up-to-date synthesis of all knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and cultural issues constraining the societal response to climate change are also discussed. This book provides a handbook for those who want to understand and contribute to meeting this challenge. It covers a very wide range of disciplines - core biophysical sciences involved with climate change (geosciences, atmospheric sciences, ocean sciences, ecology/biology) as well as economics, political science, health sciences, institutions and governance, sociology, ethics and philosophy, and engineering. As such it will be invaluable for a wide range of researchers and professionals wanting a cutting-edge synthesis of climate change issues, and for advanced student courses on climate change.

✦ Table of Contents

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Dedication......Page 7
Contents......Page 9
Writing team......Page 11
Foreword......Page 17
Preface......Page 19
Acronyms and abbreviations......Page 21
Part I Climatic trends......Page 25
1 Identifying, monitoring and predicting change in the climate system......Page 27
1.1 The interaction of many different processes make up the climate system......Page 28
1.2 Identifying changes in the climate system......Page 35
1.3 Other indicators of change in the climate system......Page 37
1.4 Linking cause to effect......Page 41
1.5 Predicting future climate conditions......Page 44
1.6 Learning from prehistoric climate change......Page 46
1.7 Summary and conclusions......Page 49
References......Page 50
2 The oceans and the climate system......Page 54
2.1 Modes of variability......Page 55
2.3 Ocean acidification......Page 60
2.4 The oceans and the hydrological cycle......Page 63
2.5 Tropical storms......Page 67
2.6 Summary and conclusions......Page 68
References......Page 69
3.1 Observations of sea-level rise......Page 74
3.2 Projections of sea-level rise from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)......Page 76
3.3 Semi-empirical models to predict sea-level rise......Page 77
3.4 Palaeo-observations of sea-level rise......Page 80
3.5 The dynamics of the large polar ice sheets......Page 82
3.5.1 The Greenland Ice Sheet......Page 87
3.5.2 The West Antarctic Ice Sheet......Page 88
3.6 Impacts of sea-level rise......Page 90
References......Page 93
4.1 Trends in human emissions of carbon dioxide......Page 99
4.2 Trends in natural carbon sinks......Page 103
4.3 Possible new sources of carbon emissions to the atmosphere......Page 111
4.4 Implications of changing sources and sinks of carbon for projections of climate change......Page 115
4.5 Summary and conclusions......Page 116
References......Page 117
Part II Defining ‘dangerous climate change’......Page 123
5 The impact of climate change on human societies......Page 125
5.1 Agriculture and food security......Page 126
5.2 Access to water resources......Page 132
5.3 Impacts on human health......Page 136
5.4 Physical security (climate-related natural disasters)......Page 141
5.5 Geopolitical relationships......Page 143
5.6 Defining dangerous climate change: Lessons from the past......Page 147
5.7 Defining dangerous climate change: synthesis of impacts analyses......Page 149
5.8 Summary and conclusions......Page 150
References......Page 151
6.1 Observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity......Page 158
6.2 Projected further impacts on biodiversity......Page 163
6.3 Consequences for the provision of ecosystem services......Page 169
6.4 Limits to adaptive capacity......Page 175
6.5 The need for strong mitigation action......Page 176
6.6 Implications for conservation policy......Page 180
References......Page 181
7 Tipping elements: jokers in the pack......Page 187
7.1.1 Arctic sea-ice......Page 190
7.1.2 Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS)......Page 193
7.1.4 Yedoma permafrost......Page 194
7.1.6 Himalayan glaciers......Page 195
7.2.2 Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC)......Page 196
7.2.3 West African Monsoon (WAM) and Sahel/Sahara precipitation......Page 199
7.2.5 Southwest North America (SWNA)......Page 202
7.3.1 Amazon rainforest......Page 203
7.3.4 Marine biological carbon pump......Page 207
7.4 Policy implications – towards tipping-point risk management......Page 208
7.5 Prospects for early warning......Page 211
7.6 Response strategies......Page 215
7.8 Conclusion......Page 218
References......Page 219
8 Linking science and action: targets, timetables and emission budgets......Page 226
8.1 Linking temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations......Page 227
8.2 Linking greenhouse gas concentrations and emissions: targets and timetables......Page 230
8.3 Linking temperature and emissions: the budget approach......Page 233
8.4 Uncertainties in the natural carbon cycle......Page 242
8.5 Land-use change and fossil fuel emissions: A carbon cycle perspective......Page 245
8.6 Summary and conclusions......Page 246
References......Page 247
Part III Equity issues......Page 251
9 The equity challenge and climate policy: responsibilities, vulnerabilities and inequality in the response to climate change......Page 253
9.1 General principles......Page 254
9.2 Mitigation approaches and changing equity considerations......Page 255
9.2.1 Energy and human development......Page 257
9.2.2 Equity implications of Clean Development Mechanism projects......Page 258
9.2.3 Equity and the forest deal: Implications of REDD for indigenous people......Page 261
9.3 Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change......Page 266
9.3.1 Climate change and food security......Page 267
9.3.2 Climate change and water security......Page 268
9.3.3 Climate change and human health......Page 269
9.3.4 Climate change and human security......Page 273
9.4 Equity and adaptation......Page 274
9.5 Summary and conclusions......Page 275
References......Page 276
10 A long-term perspective on climate change: values and ethics......Page 284
10.1 The long-term implications of climate change......Page 285
10.2 The consequences of these long-term changes for human societies......Page 287
10.3 Investment in natural capital......Page 292
10.4 Ethical aspects of biodiversity loss......Page 293
References......Page 300
Part IV Mitigation and adaptation approaches......Page 303
11.1 Introduction......Page 305
11.2 Snapshots of decarbonisation pathways......Page 308
11.3 The research and development supply......Page 315
11.4 Reductions in patenting intensity......Page 317
11.5 The role of energy efficiency......Page 320
11.6 Low-carbon energy supply systems......Page 339
11.7 The feed-in tariff......Page 340
11.8 The job creation dividend from greenhouse gas abatement......Page 341
11.9 Combining technology and financial innovation: the next wave of greenhouse gas abatement......Page 343
11.10 A roadmap to low-carbon energy efficiency and clean energy supply options......Page 344
11.11 Decarbonising transportation: integrating science and policy......Page 346
11.12 Innovations in response to challenges: from lead to carbon......Page 347
11.13 Sustainability and economic path dependency......Page 348
11.14 What is the carbon impact of biofuels… and other new fuels?......Page 349
11.15 Electromobility......Page 352
References......Page 353
12.1 Introduction......Page 357
12.2 Modelling the economics of climate change......Page 358
12.3 Economic instruments for mitigation......Page 362
12.3.1 Emissions pricing......Page 363
12.3.2 Fiscal and regulatory instruments......Page 364
12.3.3 Political economy and practice of mitigation policy......Page 369
12.4.2 Roles for policy......Page 371
12.5.1 International mitigation mechanisms......Page 373
12.5.2 International climate finance......Page 375
12.6 Summary and conclusions......Page 378
References......Page 379
13 Geopolitics and governance......Page 384
13.1 Designing optimally structured agreements for curbing greenhouse gas emissions......Page 386
13.2 The ‘relative gains’ side of climate negotiations: competing for growth and wealth......Page 392
13.3 Modelling super games and multiple axes......Page 395
13.4 International fora and formats: UNFCCC, the Gs and all the others......Page 399
13.5 Top-down vs bottom-up, and the domestic–international interface (two-level games)......Page 408
13.6 Security and climate change: the conflict dimension......Page 412
13.7 Energy security meets climate security......Page 413
13.8 The geopolitics of geoengineering......Page 416
13.9 The UN Security Council as panic bottom – or reformation of the UNFCCC?......Page 418
References......Page 420
14 Adapting to the unavoidable......Page 428
14.1 Principles of adaptation......Page 430
14.2 Tools and information to support adaptation......Page 434
14.3.2 Agricultural systems......Page 436
14.3.3 Land systems, including forests......Page 438
14.3.4 Water resources......Page 439
14.3.5 Urban areas......Page 440
14.3.6 Coastal zone......Page 441
14.3.8 Biodiversity and natural ecosystems......Page 442
14.4 Adaptation to climate change in the least-developed countries......Page 443
14.5 Learning from case studies......Page 445
14.6 Summary and conclusions......Page 446
References......Page 447
Part V Meeting the challenge......Page 453
15 Integrating adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development......Page 455
15.1 Frameworks for integration......Page 456
15.2 Integrating adaptation and sustainable development......Page 461
15.3 Integrating mitigation and sustainable development......Page 464
15.4.1 Trade-offs......Page 471
15.5.1 Agriculture......Page 472
15.5.2 Forests......Page 476
15.5.3 Biodiversity conservation......Page 479
15.6 Broader perspectives......Page 481
References......Page 483
16 Mobilising the population......Page 491
16.1 What do we know about attitudes to climate change?......Page 492
16.2 Households and the response to climate change......Page 499
16.3 Farmers and climate change adaptation......Page 502
16.4 Non-state actors and the response to climate change......Page 504
16.5 Summary and conclusions......Page 507
References......Page 508
17.1 Introduction......Page 512
17.2 Societal response to advances in scientific understanding......Page 513
17.3 Managing the human–Earth relationship: historical perspectives......Page 519
17.4 Managing the human–Earth relationship in an Earth System context......Page 520
17.4.1 Climate change is only the tip of the iceberg......Page 524
17.4.2 Geoengineering......Page 527
17.5 Summary and conclusions......Page 530
References......Page 531
Index......Page 534