Chinaโs future is arguably the most consequential question in global affairs. Having enjoyed unprecedented levels of growth, China is at a critical juncture in the development of its economy, society, polity, national security, and international relations. The direction the nation takes at this turning point will determine whether it stalls or continues to develop and prosper.
Will China be successful in implementing a new wave of transformational reforms that could last decades and make it the worldโs leading superpower? Or will its leaders shy away from the drastic changes required because the regimeโs power is at risk? If so, will that lead to prolonged stagnation or even regime collapse? Might China move down a more liberal or even democratic path? Or will China instead emerge as a hard, authoritarian and aggressive superstate?
In this new book, David Shambaugh argues that these potential pathways are all possibilities - but they depend on key decisions yet to be made by Chinaโs leaders, different pressures from within Chinese society, as well as actions taken by other nations. Assessing these scenarios and their implications, he offers a thoughtful and clear study of Chinaโs future for all those seeking to understand the countryโs likely trajectory over the coming decade and beyond.