Chance Rules: An Informal Guide to Probability, Risk and Statistics

✍ Scribed by Brian Everitt

• Publisher: Copernicus
• Year: 2008
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 212
• Edition: 2nd
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

Chance continues to govern our lives in the 21^st Century. From the genes we inherit and the environment into which we are born, to the lottery ticket we buy at the local store, much of life is a gamble. In business, education, travel, health, and marriage, we take chances in the hope of obtaining something better. Chance colors our lives with uncertainty, and so it is important to examine it and try to understand about how it operates in a number of different circumstances. Such understanding becomes simpler if we take some time to learn a little about probability, since probability is the natural language of uncertainty.

This second edition of Chance Rules again recounts the story of chance through history and the various ways it impacts on our lives. Here you can read about the earliest gamblers who thought that the fall of the dice was controlled by the gods, as well as the modern geneticist and quantum theory researcher trying to integrate aspects of probability into their chosen speciality. Example included in the first addition such as the infamous Monty Hall problem, tossing coins, coincidences, horse racing, birthdays and babies remain, often with an expanded discussion, in this edition. Additional material in the second edition includes, a probabilistic explanation of why things were better when you were younger, consideration of whether you can use probability to prove the existence of God, how long you may have to wait to win the lottery, some court room dramas, predicting the future, and how evolution scores over creationism. Chance Rules lets you learn about probability without complex mathematics.

✦ Table of Contents

Chance Rules......Page 2
Preface to theSecond Edition......Page 6
Acknowledgments tothe Second Edition......Page 7
Preface to theFirst Edition......Page 8
Acknowledgments tothe First Edition......Page 10
Contents......Page 12
A Brief History of Chance......Page 14
Introduction......Page 25
The Classical Definition of Probability......Page 26
Subjective Probability......Page 28
Rules for Combining Probabilities......Page 29
Odds......Page 30
Introduction......Page 31
Permutations and Combinations......Page 32
Using Permutations and Combinations to Assign Probabilities......Page 34
The Toss of a Coin......Page 36
The Probability of a Head......Page 38
Four tosses......Page 41
Having Babies......Page 45
Rolling Dice......Page 50
Shooting Craps......Page 55
Waiting Times......Page 56
National Lotteries......Page 58
Football Pools......Page 63
Introduction......Page 66
Roulette......Page 67
Playing Cards......Page 69
Poker......Page 71
Contract Bridge......Page 75
Blackjack......Page 78
Horse Racing......Page 80
Introduction......Page 87
Birthday Surprises......Page 89
Coincidences......Page 91
Introduction......Page 96
Conditional Probability......Page 97
Conditional Probabilities and Medical Practice......Page 101
An Unsung Statistician......Page 103
Applying Bayes’s Theorem......Page 106
Back to the Courtroom......Page 109
A New Neighbour......Page 114
The Fabulous Prize......Page 116
Theres No Such Thing as a Surprise Fire Drill......Page 118
Will You Get the Correct Seat?......Page 119
Finding the Right Hat......Page 121
Records or Why Things Were Better When I Was Young......Page 122
Choosing the Most Bubbly Secretary......Page 123
The St. Petersburg Paradox......Page 126
All Probabilities Are Conditional......Page 127
Introduction......Page 129
Quantifying Risk......Page 131
Risk Presentation and Risk Perception......Page 134
Acceptable Risk......Page 141
Introduction......Page 143
Medicine-from Anecdote to Evidence......Page 144
Treatments Worthless-and Worse......Page 145
The Beginnings of a Rational Approach......Page 147
The Clinical Trial......Page 151
Vitamin C and the Common Cold......Page 155
Healing Power of Prayer?......Page 157
Summary......Page 160
Introduction......Page 162
Acupuncture......Page 165
Stopping Smoking......Page 168
Warts and All......Page 170
Migraine......Page 171
Summary......Page 172
Introduction......Page 176
Outline placeholder......Page 0
Statistical Models......Page 177
Modelling Winning Times in the Men’s 1500 m in the Olympic Games......Page 178
Can Statisticians or Mathematicians Predict the Market?......Page 185
The Overthrow of Determinism......Page 189
Chaos......Page 193
Evolution, Genes and Chromosomes......Page 194
Life, the Universe and Everything......Page 200
Epilogue......Page 204
Sources......Page 205
Index......Page 206