This paper demonstrates, by means of Monte Carlo experimentation, that tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure based on instrumental variables regressions of the change in the short rate on the relevant lagged yield spread are prone to severe over-rejection when the term premium i
Central bank policy reaction and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure
โ Scribed by Peter Kugler
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1997
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 125 KB
- Volume
- 2
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 1076-9307
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
โฆ Synopsis
This paper applies the monetary policy reaction model developed by McCallum to the term structure of interest rates. First, it contains the solution of a rational expectations model of the central bank policy reaction, with respect to the current long short-spread for the N period long rate case. Second, it applies this model rather successfully to recent weekly data for four countries.
๐ SIMILAR VOLUMES
This paper explains the contradictory findings from long-run and short-run tests of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. Recent research suggests that, while the long-run tests support the theory, the short-run tests do not. Our results which are based on US Treasury bills rat