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πŸ“

Causation, Prediction, and Search, Second Edition (Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning)

✍ Scribed by Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, Richard Scheines


Publisher
The MIT Press
Year
2001
Tongue
English
Leaves
567
Series
Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning
Edition
2
Category
Library

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✦ Synopsis


What assumptions and methods allow us to turn observations into causal knowledge, and how can even incomplete causal knowledge be used in planning and prediction to influence and control our environment? In this book Peter Spirtes, Clark Glymour, and Richard Scheines address these questions using the formalism of Bayes networks, with results that have been applied in diverse areas of research in the social, behavioral, and physical sciences. The authors show that although experimental and observational study designs may not always permit the same inferences, they are subject to uniform principles. They axiomatize the connection between causal structure and probabilistic independence, explore several varieties of causal indistinguishability, formulate a theory of manipulation, and develop asymptotically reliable procedures for searching over equivalence classes of causal models, including models of categorical data and structural equation models with and without latent variables. The authors show that the relationship between causality and probability can also help to clarify such diverse topics in statistics as the comparative power of experimentation versus observation, Simpson's paradox, errors in regression models, retrospective versus prospective sampling, and variable selection. The second edition contains a new introduction and an extensive survey of advances and applications that have appeared since the first edition was published in 1993.

✦ Table of Contents


Preface to the Second Edition......Page 12
Preface......Page 14
Acknowledgments......Page 18
Notational Conventions......Page 20
1 Introduction and Advertisement......Page 24
2 Formal Preliminaries......Page 28
3 Causation and Prediction: Axioms and Explications......Page 42
4 Statistical Indistinguishability......Page 82
5 Discovery Algorithms for Causally Sufficient Structures......Page 96
6 Discovery Algorithms without Causal Sufficiency......Page 146
7 Prediction......Page 180
8 Regression, Causation, and Prediction......Page 214
9 The Design of Empirical Studies......Page 232
10 The Structure of the Unobserved......Page 276
11 Elaborating Linear Theories with Unmeasured Variables......Page 292
12 Prequels and Sequels......Page 318
13 Proofs of Theorems......Page 400
Notes......Page 498
Glossary......Page 504
References......Page 518
Index......Page 554


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