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Can Markov switching models predict excess foreign exchange returns?

โœ Scribed by Michael Dueker; Christopher J. Neely


Book ID
116614788
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2007
Tongue
English
Weight
230 KB
Volume
31
Category
Article
ISSN
0378-4266

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โœ Ian W. Marsh ๐Ÿ“‚ Article ๐Ÿ“… 2000 ๐Ÿ› John Wiley and Sons ๐ŸŒ English โš– 128 KB

This paper estimates two-state Markov models for three daily exchange rate series, and investigates the proยฎtability of following the generated forecasts using the performance of simple chartist trading rules as benchmarks. It is shown that (1) the data are well approximated by Markov models, (2) th