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Business cycle non-linearities in UK consumption and production

✍ Scribed by Nadir Öcal; Denise R. Osborn

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2000
Tongue
English
Weight
204 KB
Volume
15
Category
Article
ISSN
0883-7252

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✦ Synopsis

This paper develops non-linear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models with two additive smooth transition components to capture the business cycle characteristics of UK real consumers' expenditure and industrial production. The results indicate consumption has essentially two business cycle regimes: recession and expansion. Industrial production, however, is characterized by the three regimes of recession, normal growth and high growth. The transitions describing recovery from recession are very similar for the two variables. Stochastic simulations illustrate the dynamic responses of these models and emphasize that they are locally linear. Our results also indicate that the two-transition STAR models have some forecast advantages over other speci®cations for periods of contraction.

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