Bounds upon the growth rate of errors in quasi-nondivergent prediction models

✍ Scribed by H. C. Davies

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 1973
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 515 KB
• Volume: 99
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0035-9009
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.49709942010

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

An upper bound is placed upon the amplification rate of an arbitrary perturbation imposed upon the observed, initial state of a barotropic flow and a two‐level, quasi‐geostrophic baroclinic flow. The implied lower bound to the predictability of the barotropic flow is a function of the mean energy and the mean enstrophy of the initial perturbation, together with certain mean properties of the observed state. Similar results are obtained for the baroclinic flow.

Estimates of the doubling time of an initial perturbation of an observed state that is characteristic of largescale atmospheric motion yields values not far removed from those attained in corresponding numerical predictions. Thus the derived bounds may be useful in assessing the growth of errors in quasi‐nondivergent prediction models.