Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics

✍ Scribed by Songsak Sriboonchitta, Vladik Kreinovich, Woraphon Yamaka

• Publisher: Springer International Publishing;Springer
• Year: 2021
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 445
• Series: Studies in Computational Intelligence 897
• Edition: 1st ed.
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality – as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown – people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Matter ....Pages i-ix
Front Matter ....Pages 1-1
On Modeling of Uncertainty in Behavioral Economics (Hung T. Nguyen)....Pages 3-21
Using Machine Learning Methods to Support Causal Inference in Econometrics (Achim Ahrens, Christopher Aitken, Mark E. Schaffer)....Pages 23-52
Don’t Test, Decide (William M. Briggs)....Pages 53-63
Weight Determination Model for Social Networks in a Trust-Enhanced Recommender System (Mei Cai, Yiming Wang, Zaiwu Gong, Guo Wei)....Pages 65-85
Survey-Based Forecasting: To Average or Not to Average (Kayan Cheng, Naijing Huang, Zhentao Shi)....Pages 87-104
PD-Implied Ratings via Referencing a Credit Rating/Scoring Pool’s Default Experience (Jin-Chuan Duan, Shuping Li)....Pages 105-115
Tail Risk Measures and Portfolio Selection (Young C. Joo, Sung Y. Park)....Pages 117-139
Why Beta Priors: Invariance-Based Explanation (Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, Kittawit Autchariyapanitkul)....Pages 141-144
Ranking-Based Voting Revisited: Maximum Entropy Approach Leads to Borda Count (and Its Versions) (Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, Guo Wei)....Pages 145-152
Monitoring Change Points by a Sign Change Method (Bo-Ru Lai, Hsiuying Wang)....Pages 153-170
Find Trade Patterns in China’s Stock Markets Using Data Mining Agents (Baokun Li, Ziwei Ma, Tonghui Wang)....Pages 171-179
The Decomposition of Quadratic Forms Under Matrix Variate Skew-Normal Distribution (Ziwei Ma, Tonghui Wang, Baokun Li, Xiaonan Zhu, Yuede Ma)....Pages 181-194
How to Gauge a Combination of Uncertainties of Different Type: General Foundations (Ingo Neumann, Vladik Kreinovich, Thach Ngoc Nguyen)....Pages 195-201
Conditional Dependence Among Oil, Gold and U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates: A Copula-GARCH Approach (Zheng Wei, Zijing Zhang, HongKun Zhang, Tonghui Wang)....Pages 203-218
Extremal Properties and Tail Asymptotic of Alpha-Skew-Normal Distribution (Weizhong Tian, Huihui Li, Rui Huang)....Pages 219-233
Front Matter ....Pages 235-235
Strategy, Culture, Human Resource, IT Capability, Digital Transformation and Firm Performance–Evidence from Vietnamese Enterprises (Nguyen Van Thuy)....Pages 237-252
Do the Macao’s Pillar Industries Have an Impact on Inbound Tourism? (Bing Yang, Jianxu Liu, Songsak Sriboonchitta)....Pages 253-265
Impact of Investment Structure by Economic Sectors and Other Factors on Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam with SGMM Estimation and Bayes Factor Approach (Huong Thi Thanh Tran, Hang Thu Pham)....Pages 267-289
Anomaly Detection for Online Visiting Traffic as a Real-Estate Indicator: The Case of HomeBuyer (Arcchaporn Choukuljaratsiri, Nat Lertwongkhanakool, Pipop Thienprapasith, Naruemon Pratanwanich, Ekapol Chuangsuwanich)....Pages 291-301
A Bayesian Analysis of the Determinants of China’s Overseas Contracted Projects in Countries Along the Belt and Road Initiative (Mengjiao Wang, Jianxu Liu, Songsak Sriboonchitta)....Pages 303-315
Herding Behavior from Loss Aversion Effect in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (Kunsuda Nimanussornkul, Chaiwat Nimanussornkul)....Pages 317-332
Technical Efficiency and Spatial Econometric Model: Application to Rice Production of Thailand (Thunyawadee Sucharidtham, Satawat Wannapan)....Pages 333-350
Artificial Neural Network with Histogram Data Time Series Forecasting: A Least Squares Approach Based on Wasserstein Distance (Pichayakone Rakpho, Woraphon Yamaka, Kongliang Zhu)....Pages 351-362
The Determinants of Planned Retirement Age of Informal Worker in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand (Pimonpun Boonyasana, Warattaya Chinnakum)....Pages 363-375
Portfolios Optimization Under Regime Switching Model: Evidences in the American Bonds and Other Financial Assets (Bing Yang, Payap Tarkhamtham, Pongsutti Phuensan, Kongliang Zhu)....Pages 377-392
Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Stock Exchange of Thailand: Evidence from the Industry-Level Stock Returns in Thailand (Siriluk Punwong, Nachatchapong Kaewsompong, Roengchai Tansuchat)....Pages 393-406
Analyzing the Relationship Among Aging Society, Investment in Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth (Kantika Khanthawithoon, Paravee Maneejuk, Woraphon Yamaka)....Pages 407-421
Sustainable Entrepreneurship on Thailand’s SMEs (Chalerm Jaitang, Paravee Maneejuk, Pitchaya Boonsrirat)....Pages 423-436
Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Thailand Macroeconomic Variables (Kanwara Ponlaem, Nachatchapong Kaewsompong, Paravee Maneejuk, Jirakom Sirisrisakulchai)....Pages 437-451

✦ Subjects

Engineering; Computational Intelligence; Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods