Cover
Half title
Title
Copyright
Contents
Preface
Chapter 1 Introduction
1.1 Example: Mortality Rates for MaΜori
1.2 Our Approach to Demographic Estimation and Forecasting
1.3 Outline of the Rest of the Book
1.4 References and Further Reading
Part I Demographic Foundations
Chapter 2 Demographic Foundations
2.1 References and Further Reading
Chapter 3 Demographic Individuals
3.1 Attributes
3.2 Events
3.3 Lexis Diagram
3.4 Twelve Fictitious Individuals
3.5 References and Further Reading
Chapter 4 Demographic Arrays
4.1 Population Counts
4.2 Death Counts
4.3 Movements 4.4 Alternative Representations of Changing Statuses4.5 Non-Demographic Events
4.6 Exposure
4.7 Age, Period, and Cohort
4.8 Rates, Proportions, Means, and Ratios
4.9 Super-Population and Finite-Population Quantities
4.10 Collapsing Dimensions
4.11 References and Further Reading
Chapter 5 Demographic Accounts
5.1 Demographic Systems
5.2 Demographic Accounts
5.3 Account with No Region and No Age
5.4 Account with Region and No Age
5.5 Account with Age and No Region
5.6 Movements Accounts and Transitions Accounts
5.7 Mathematical Description of Accounting Identities 5.8 References and Further ReadingChapter 6 Demographic Data
6.1 Traditional Data Sources
6.2 New Data Sources
6.3 Data Quality and Model Choice
6.4 References and Further Reading
Part II Bayesian Foundations
Chapter 7 Bayesian Foundations
7.1 Bayesian Statistics
7.2 Features of a Bayesian Data Analysis
7.3 References and Further Reading
Chapter 8 Bayesian Model Specification
8.1 Using Probability Distributions to Quantify Uncertainty . .
8.2 Posterior as a Compromise between Likelihood and Prior .
8.3 Standard Probability Distributions
8.3.1 Poisson Distribution 8.3.2 Binomial Distribution8.3.3 Normal Distribution
8.3.4 Half-t Distribution
8.4 Exchangeability
8.5 Partial Exchangeability
8.5.1 Exchangeability within Groups
8.5.2 Exchangeable Residuals
8.5.3 Exchangeable Increments
8.6 Pooling Information
8.7 Hierarchy
8.8 Incorporating External Information
8.8.1 Priors
8.8.2 Covariates
8.8.3 Embedding the Model in a Larger Model
8.9 References and Further Reading
Chapter 9 Bayesian Inference and Model Checking
9.1 Computation
9.2 Summarizing the Posterior Distribution
9.2.1 Summary Measures
9.2.2 Calculating Posterior Summaries 9.3 Derived Distributions9.3.1 Posterior Distribution for Derived Quantities
9.3.2 Posterior Predictive Distribution
9.4 Missing Data
9.5 Forecasting
9.6 Model Checking
9.6.1 Responsible Modelers Check and Revise their Models
9.6.2 Heldback Data
9.6.3 Replicate Data
9.7 Simulation and Calibration*
9.8 References and Further Reading
Part III Inferring Arrays from Reliable Data
Chapter 10 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Reliable Data
10.1 Summary of the Framework of Part III
10.2 Applications
10.3 References and Further Reading
Chapter 11 Infant Mortality in Sweden