Assessment of the return period of near-PMP point and catchment rainfall for England and Wales

✍ Scribed by Chris G. Collier; David G. Morris; David A. Jones

• Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
• Year: 2010
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 310 KB
• Volume: 18
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 1350-4827
• DOI: 10.1002/met.191

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

The return periods of sub‐daily rainfall events approaching Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) have been estimated for point locations and catchment areas using the assumptions made in a previously published storm model. It has been assumed that PMP of around 12 h duration is the result of severe thunderstorms for catchments up to about 200 km^2^ and of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) for larger catchments. The analysis suggests return periods ranging from around 1 in 10 000 years for point locations to 1 in 500 000 years for large catchments, though these are very dependent on the assumptions. The results are compared with estimates from a number of other sources. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society