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Assessing the spatial and temporal variation in the skill of precipitation forecasts from an NWP model

✍ Scribed by Nigel Roberts

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 2008
Tongue: English
Weight: 241 KB
Volume: 15
Category: Article
ISSN: 1350-4827
DOI: 10.1002/met.57

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✦ Synopsis

Abstract

It is becoming increasingly important to be able to verify the spatial accuracy of precipitation forecasts, especially with the advent of high‐resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this article, the fractions skill score (FSS) approach has been used to perform a scale‐selective evaluation of precipitation forecasts during 2003 from the Met Office mesoscale model (12 km grid length). The investigation shows how skill varies with spatial scale, the scales over which the data assimilation (DA) adds most skill, and how the loss of that skill is dependent on both the spatial scale and the rainfall coverage being examined. Although these results come from a specific model, they demonstrate how this verification approach can provide a quantitative assessment of the spatial behaviour of new finer‐resolution models and DA techniques. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

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