Are risk-averse agents more optimistic? A Bayesian estimation approach
✍ Scribed by Selima Ben Mansour; Elyès Jouini; Jean-Michel Marin; Clotilde Napp; Christian Robert
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2008
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 344 KB
- Volume
- 23
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0883-7252
- DOI
- 10.1002/jae.1027
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Abstract
Our aim is to analyze the link between optimism and risk aversion in a subjective expected utility setting and to estimate the average level of optimism when weighted by risk tolerance. Its estimation leads to a non‐trivial statistical problem. We start from a large lottery survey (1536 individuals). We assume that individuals have true unobservable characteristics. We adopt a Bayesian approach and use a hybrid MCMC approximation method to numerically estimate the distributions of the unobservable characteristics. We find that individuals are on average pessimistic and that pessimism and risk tolerance are positively correlated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.