Behavioural studies have shown that while humans may be the best decision makers on the planet, we are not quite as good as we think we are. We are regularly subject to biases, inconsistencies and irrationalities in our decision making. Decision Behaviour, Analysis and Support explores perspectives
Applied Decision Analysis and Economic Behaviour
β Scribed by Peter J. Stemp, Stephen J. Turnovsky (auth.), A. J. Hughes Hallett (eds.)
- Publisher
- Springer Netherlands
- Year
- 1984
- Tongue
- English
- Leaves
- 358
- Series
- Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics 3
- Edition
- 1
- Category
- Library
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
β¦ Synopsis
The optimisation of economic systems over time, and in an uncertain environment, is central to the study of economic behaviour. The behaviour of rational decision makers, whether they are market agents, firms, or governments and their agencies, is governed by decisions designed to seeure the best outcomes subject to the perceived information and economic responses (inlcuding those of other agents). Economic behaviour has therefore to be analysed in terms of the outcomes of a multiperiod stochastic optimisation process containing four main components: the economic responses (the dynamic constraints, represented by an economic model); the objecΒ tive function (the goals and their priorities); the conditioning information (expected exogenous events and the expected future state of the economy); and risk manageΒ ment (how uncertainties are accommodated). The papers presented in this book all analyse some aspect of economic behaviour related to the objectives, information, or risk components of the decision process. While the construction of economic models obviously also has a vital role to play, that component has received much greater (or almost exclusive) attention elsewhere. These papers examine optimising behaviour in a wide range of economic problems, both theoretical and applied. They reflect a variety of concerns: economic responses under rational expectations; the Lucas critique and optimal fiscal or monetary poliΒ eies; market management; partly endogenous goals; evaluating government reactions; locational decisions; uncertainty and information structures; and forecasting with endogenous reactions.
β¦ Table of Contents
Front Matter....Pages i-ix
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Optimal Stabilisation Policies Under Perfect Foresight....Pages 3-22
Toward The Resurrection of Optimal Macroeconomic Policies....Pages 23-32
Optimal Feedback and Feedforward Stabilisation of Exchange Rates, Money, Prices and Output Under Rational Expectations....Pages 33-60
Front Matter....Pages 61-61
Adaptive Econometric Forecasting by an Approximate Filtering-Smoothing Algorithm: The Case of The Israeli Meat Sector....Pages 63-84
Controlling an Econometric Model Using Different Coefficient Sets....Pages 85-95
The Uncertainty Frontier as a Global Approach to the Efficient Stabilisation of Economic Systems: Experiments with the Micro-DMS Model....Pages 97-117
Front Matter....Pages 119-119
Incomes Policy in a Political Environment: a Structural Model for the U.K. 1961β1980....Pages 121-144
Multiperiod Prediction from Dynamic Models with Autocorrelated Errors Conditional on Feedback Rules for the Future Policy Variables....Pages 145-163
The Evaluation of Historical Policy Via Optimal Control Techniques....Pages 165-177
Front Matter....Pages 179-179
Endogenous Versus Exogenous Price Targets for Commodity Market Stabilisation....Pages 181-207
Simple and Optimal Control Rules for Stabilising Commodity Markets....Pages 209-248
Front Matter....Pages 249-249
Behavioural Assumptions in Decentralised Stabilisation Policies....Pages 251-270
Stability Analysis of Large Scale Economic Systems which have a MultiβTime Scale Property....Pages 271-288
The Location of a Firm on a Network....Pages 289-326
Style in Multisectoral Modelling....Pages 329-360
Back Matter....Pages 361-361
β¦ Subjects
Econometrics
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