Application of Grey-Markov Model in Forecasting Fire Accidents

✍ Scribed by MAO Zhan-li; SUN Jin-hua

• Publisher: Elsevier
• Year: 2011
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 127 KB
• Volume: 11
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 1877-7058
• DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2011.04.663

✦ Synopsis

Fire accidents are influenced by many complex factors, and it has the characteristic of both randomicity and fluctuation, so a new forecasting model (Grey-Markov model) was established in order to forecast fire accidents effectively in this paper, which has the merits of both GM (1, 1) forecast model and Markov chain forecast model, it can reduce random fluctuation of accident data affecting forecasting precision and develop the application scope of Grey forecast. Finally, an example was analyzed, the results show that Grey-Markov model proposed in this paper has a higher forecast precision and excellent applicability.