## Abstract Performance of a feedβforward backβpropagation artificial neural network on forecasting the daily occurrence and annual depth of rainfall at a single meteorological station is presented. Both shortβterm and longβterm forecasting was attempted, with ground level data collected by the met
Application of an artificial neural network to typhoon rainfall forecasting
β Scribed by Gwo-Fong Lin; Lu-Hsien Chen
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2005
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 163 KB
- Volume
- 19
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0885-6087
- DOI
- 10.1002/hyp.5638
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β¦ Synopsis
A neural network with two hidden layers is developed to forecast typhoon rainfall. First, the model configuration is evaluated using eight typhoon characteristics. The forecasts for two typhoons based on only the typhoon characteristics are capable of showing the trend of rainfall when a typhoon is nearby. Furthermore, the influence of spatial rainfall information on rainfall forecasting is considered for improving the model design. A semivariogram is also applied to determine the required number of nearby rain gauges whose rainfall information will be used as input to the model. With the typhoon characteristics and the spatial rainfall information as input to the model, the forecasting model can produce reasonable forecasts. It is also found that too much spatial rainfall information cannot improve the generalization ability of the model, because the inclusion of irrelevant information adds noise to the network and undermines the performance of the network.
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