Anticipating a Nuclear Iran: Challenges for U.S. Security

✍ Scribed by Jacquelyn Davis, Robert Pfaltzgraff Jr.

• Publisher: Columbia University Press
• Year: 2013
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 240
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

This volume is based on the assumption that Iran will soon obtain nuclear weapons, and Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr. develop alternative models for assessing the challenges of a nuclear Iran for U.S. security. Through three scenario models, the book explores the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the United States in a post–Cold War world. The authors concentrate on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran's military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis-à-vis the United States; and Iran's ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post–Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran's nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches to improve U.S. defense and deterrence planning.

✦ Table of Contents

Table of Contents
List of Tables and Boxes
Preface
1. Introductions: Setting the Scene for Iran's Emergence as a Nuclear Power
2. The Deterrence Dynamics of an Iran with Nuclear Weapons
Does the Nature of the Regime Matter?
Model I: A Defensive Iran
Model II: An Aggressive Iran
Model III: An Unstable Iran
3. Considerations Influencing Iran's Nuclear Emergence
A Defensive Iran's Nuclear Posture, Doctrinal Priorities, and Force Posture (Model I)
An Aggressive Iran that Flexes Its Muscles (Model II)
An Unstable Iran and the Deterrence of Rogue ELements and Nonstate Actors (Model III)
4. Nuclear Weapons Operationalization: What Type of Nuclear Force?
Model I: A Defensive Deterrent
Model II: An Offensive Deterrent for an Aggressive Iran
Model III: An Unstable Iran and the Need to Deter Regime Elements
5. Implications for U.S. Strategic and Operational Planning
Iran as Catalyst for a New Deterrence Dynamic Among Nuclear States
Israel and the Challenges of Catalytic Warfare
Of Dyads, Triads, and the Need for a New Deterrence Paradigm Relating to a Nuclear Iran
6. U.S. Deterrence Planning in the Event of an Iranian Nuclear Breakout
Declaratory Policy, Escalation Control, and Strategic Communications
Offensive-Strike Options and Preventive Planning
Reassuring Allies/Coalition Partners in the Face of Iranian Proliferation
Assuring and Dissuading Israel in the Face of an Iranian Nuclear Breakout
Missile Defenses and Consequence-Management Considerations
7. Dealing with a Nuclear Iran and Asymmetric Challenges
Hezbollah and Asymmetric Operations
Nuclear Weapons and Asymmetric Operations
Deterring Rogue Elements of Nonstate Armed Groups
Deterrence Planning for the Twenty-First Century
8. U.S. Deterrence Planning and Iran
Extended Deterrence in the "Second Nuclear Age"
Cyberwarfare and Network Operations
Notes
Index