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An inverse of Sanov's theorem

✍ Scribed by Ayalvadi Ganesh; Neil O'Connell


Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
1999
Tongue
English
Weight
87 KB
Volume
42
Category
Article
ISSN
0167-7152

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis


Let X k be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables taking values in a ΓΏnite set, and consider the problem of estimating the law of X1 in a Bayesian framework. We prove that the sequence of posterior distributions satisΓΏes a large deviation principle, and give an explicit expression for the rate function. As an application, we obtain an asymptotic formula for the predictive probability of ruin in the classical gambler's ruin problem.


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