✦ LIBER ✦

An Improved Approach for Estimating the Mean and Standard Deviation of a Subjective Probability Distribution

✍ Scribed by HON-SHIANG LAU; AMY HING-LING LAU; YUE ZHANG

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1997
Tongue: English
Weight: 236 KB
Volume: 16
Category: Article
ISSN: 0277-6693
DOI: 10.1002/(sici)1099-131x(199703)16:2<83::aid-for646>3.0.co;2-w

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

The literature oers many formulas for estimating the mean and standard deviation of a subjective probability distribution (a well-known example is the PERT formulas). This paper shows that some basic underlying assumptions behind most of these formulas are inappropriate; a more appropriate framework is then proposed. We then develop new formulas that can estimate mean and standard deviation much more accurately than the currently available formulas.