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An epidemic with individual infectivities and susceptibilities

โœ Scribed by D.J Daley; J Gani; S Yakowitz

Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
2000
Tongue
English
Weight
977 KB
Volume
32
Category
Article
ISSN
0895-7177

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โœฆ Synopsis

This paper derives approximations and bounds for the mean duration time of a simple epidemic in a population of individuals i = 1,. . . , IV, each of whom haa a specific susceptibility ai to infection, and a specific infectivity pi once infected, starting from an initial infective with infectivity PO. Some algebraic results are obtained for the mean duration E(T) of this epidemic. An inequality is proved and a conjecture formulated for E(T) compared with the mean duration of an epidemic with homogeneous susceptibility and infectivity rates equal to the averages of the oi and pi, respectively. Bounds for E(T) are found and illustrated in four different cases of {q} and {pi}, for which simulations are provided. It is concluded that variable susceptibility is of greater effect than variable infectivity in changing the mean and variability of the duration T relative to its characteristics under homogeneous assumptions.

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