An analysis of trading and nontrading period returns for the value line composite index; spot versus futures: A note
✍ Scribed by Edwin D. Maberly
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1987
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 183 KB
- Volume
- 7
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0270-7314
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Junkus (1986)
tested for the existence of the Monday effect for Value Line spot and futures prices. No statistically significant evidence of the Monday effect was found on a close-to-close basis for either spot or futures prices.
The purpose of this note is to show that a well-defined Monday effect exists after adjusting for the market effect for both Value Line spot and futures prices. In addition this note points out an important difference between trading and nontrading period returns for the Value Line and S&P 500 futures.
1 I I. METHODOLOGY
The natural logarithm of the price relative is used as a measure of return for Value Line spot and futures prices. Holidays and days following holidays are omitted with observations switched to the next futures contract on the first day of the delivery month. The results for the period February 28, 1982-December 31, 1985 are presented in Table I. Spot returns are calculated on a close-to-close basis only. The
KCBT Annual Statistical Report contains what is labeled as an opening price for the
Value Line Composite Index. Using this price as the opening price is questionable, however, based on it's method of computation. 'Junkus did not adjust Mondays reported spot return for the market effect when testing for statistical significance. The Value Line Index increased by 44% over the period Februaly 28, 1982 through March 30.1984.
Futures results were presented on a close-to-close basis only.