An analysis of the decline in California traffic fatalities during the energy crisis

✍ Scribed by Betty Yei-Chou Chu; Geoffrey E. Nunn

• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Year: 1976
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 491 KB
• Volume: 8
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0001-4575
• DOI: 10.1016/0001-4575(76)90016-6

✦ Synopsis

This study attempts to assess the impact on California traffic fatalities of changes brought about by the 1974 energy crisis. Traffic fatalities are caused by a multitude of factors, but historically California fatalities have been closely related statistically to two factors. One is driving risk as measured by average fatalities per vehicle mile. The second is the amount of exposure to risk as measured by the volume of vehicle miles traveled. Based on these considerations, a projection is made of the number of fatalities that would have occurred under non-energy-crisis conditions. Estimates are then made of the impact of (1) the reduction in driving, (2) permanent daylight saving time, and (3) the reduction in speed and speed dispersion.

The findings suggest that 2303 fatalities would have occurred during the first half of 1974, assuming normal conditions. The actual number for this period is 1726. Reduced travel is estimated to account for 2%, permanent daylight saving time for 8%, and slower driving speed for 3% of the 577 total fatality reduction that is estimated to have taken place.